Sunday, November 13, 2005

Trojans really are 99.6% effective.

Cal got a beating put on them by USC on Saturday. I was there, hoping to be on hand to rush the field following another Cal shocker against the Trojans. A repeat of 2003, when Cal was the last team to beat Southern Cal. Didn't happen. Not only is Cal a shell of the team they were last season (especially in the passing game), but USC is much, much better.

Cal has played USC tough (3 games decided by 11 points prior to Saturday), but Leinart in particular has really improved. He picked apart Cal's above-average secondary (it didn't hurt his line gave him all day to throw) and always made the right decision. I thought Cal's defense did a good job against Bush and White (the stats don't really reflect it, but I think a lot of the yardage was gained after the game was already out of hand). But it seemed like USC converted every third down in the first half, unlike last year's game, where Leinart seemed a little rattled. Aaron Rodgers outplayed him, and if Cal had won that game, Tedford would've been like Bill Belichek to Leinart's Peyton Manning.

The 49ers blew it. They needed the #1 pick this year. Matt Leinart is the quarterback Alex Smith wishes he was.

Cal really missed Rodgers this season. If Rodgers had stayed for his senior season (and stayed healthy), we beat UCLA, Oregon State, and Oregon and head into the USC matchup undefeated and probably #3 or #4 in the nation. He would've given us a shot.

It sucks to be Joe Ayoob. Not only is he playing in Rodgers' shadow, but he has been terribly inconsistent. Every time it looks like he is improving (Washington, the 4th quarter of the Washington State game), he lays an egg. In Cal's four losses (out of the last five games), he's thrown 3 TDs and 10 INTs, including 4 Saturday. Saturday he was all over the map - passes bounced three feet in front of open receivers, sailed five feet over their heads, or were targeted at a sea of white jerseys. And these were on short routes. Throwing the ball downfield has not been an option most of the season, severely limiting Cal's offensive playcalling. It got to the point where everyone in the stadium knew Cal was going to run on every play. It became eerily like watching the Niners.

Times are not good when you're being booed at home.

When Steve Levy (who, by the way, was a fullback last season) came in in the fourth quarter, there a thunderous ovation. Levy led Cal on their only touchdown drive, although he did fumble on his first possession.

It might be too late in the season for a quarterback controversy, but it's obvious Ayoob is out of his league. It was surprising when Longshore beat him out in spring practice for the starting quarterback job, but now it's painfully evident why. Ayoob is physically gifted, but he doesn't have the head or work ethic that made Rodgers an NFL first-round draft pick. I'm not even sure I've seen Ayoob throw the ball away this season. He seems to try to do too much, to create opportunities where none exists. He got away with it early in the season against weaker opponents, but against the tougher Pac-10 defenses, he can't compete.

Make no mistake, Cal is still one of the top programs in college football. Next year's squad will return most of the offensive weapons. Lynch will be a Heisman candidate and he and Forsett will make a nice combo a la Bush & White. Longshore will be healthy and either he or another player or even an improved Ayoob will improve the QB position. They should be a top 10 team, and USC should have their hands full next year.

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